the effection of epidemic situation on our materials
For each additional month of the outbreak, polyester production was affected by about 800,000 tons, PTA demand was reduced by about 690,000 tons, and ethylene glycol demand was reduced by about 270,000 tons.
1. Influence on PTA:
Starting from December 2019, since the processing fee is relatively low, the spot price of PTA plate and inner plate almost follows the trend of crude oil and PX price. After the end of January, the PTA processing difference improved greatly, but the contradiction between the cost end and the demand end was more definitely the cost end. In the panic of demand, the international oil price fell continuously, and PX also fell from $792 on 23rd to $764 on 31st January, a weekly decline of 3.5%. According to the price of PX CFR on January 31, the disk processing fee is 650 yuan, while the main contract price of PTA2005 is only about 4700 yuan. Add to this the expectation that the recovery time for downstream demand will be extended, and another new low is likely.
2. Effects on ethylene glycol:
Glycol fundamentals before the better, the outbreak may become its supply and demand fundamentals from strong to weak opportunity, the Spring Festival is inevitable, but the recovery of downstream polyester rate is delayed, the original market expected rebound may be delayed because of the outbreak. Factors such as traffic restrictions can also add to the inventory buildup. Northeast Asia ethylene price in the holiday is basically stable, cost support ethylene glycol is stronger than PTA.
source:HuaXian tou tiao