New Progress In China-us Economic And Trade Consultations Sends A Positive Signal. China's Textile And Apparel Exports Are Expected To Close DownNew Progress In China-us Economic And Trade Consultations Sends A Positive Signal. China's Textile And Apparel Exports Are Expected To Close Down

General situation

Textile exports rebounded and garment declines narrowed. After two months of declines, textile exports rebounded in October, rising 4.5 per cent year-on-year and 4 per cent month-on-month. This was led by fabric and manufactured goods, up 6.1 per cent and 4 per cent respectively. Clothing exports fell 5.3 per cent, also a smaller decline than in the previous two months. In the january-october period, cumulative textile exports rose 0.4%, with fabric and manufactured goods up 1.4% and 0.2%, respectively, and yarn down 3.2%. Clothing fell 4.9 per cent, with the combined volume of needle-woven garments falling 3.4 per cent and the average export price falling 2.4 per cent.

Exports in key provinces and cities are showing signs of recovery. In October, all of the top five export provinces and cities showed signs of recovery except guangdong, with zhejiang, jiangsu and fujian achieving 2 percent to 10 percent growth respectively, and shandong dropping 6 percent, a significant slowdown from the previous month. From January to October, zhejiang and fujian, the top five provinces and cities, registered growth of 0.7 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively. Exports from the central province of hunan continued to grow at a high rate, with a cumulative increase of 71%.

The full year is expected to end with a small decline. In the first three quarters of 2019, China's textile and apparel exports dropped 2.2 percent, 2.8 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively, with the declines gradually widening. In October, at the start of the fourth quarter, although exports did not stop falling, the decline was much smaller than in the previous two months, falling by only 1.2%.

China's textile and apparel imports and exports have been hit hard by trade frictions and tariffs: since the tariffs on apparel and home textile products began on Sept. 15, global exports of the two categories fell an average of 6.5% and 4.2%, respectively, in the september-october period, with exports to the U.S. falling an average of 20.5% and 6.2%, respectively. On December 15, if the 4B product in listing 4 is taxed as scheduled (which still involves some clothing and home textile products), my exports to the us will slow down even faster. But because already be in year end, won't produce apparent effect to annual export. At present, trade and economic frictions between China and the us have once again come to a rest, and the trade war situation has eased slightly, which is conducive to stabilizing export confidence.

At the same time, the market share of asean market and countries along the "One Belt And One Road" in China's exports has been increasing year by year. The relatively good market environment and growing demand have kept the steady growth of China's exports to these regions, which has led to a positive pull on the overall exports and kept the decline of exports under control at a certain level.

The general administration of customs said textile and garment exports fell 4.3 percent in November from a year earlier. Based on current data, exports are expected to end the year with a smaller-than-expected 3% decline, assuming there are no more surprises before the end of the year.