The Situation Of Yarn Factory
Polyester load has recovered to 64.1 percent from 59.5 percent. And the load lifting range is expected to gradually increase.
Because of the collapse of the cost of crude oil, so on the paper, polyester categories of cash flow level is higher. But due to light transactions, the book of high cash flow is difficult to cash. At present, the inventory days of POY, FDY and DTY are around 28-37 days, and the inventory pressure of polyester factory is relatively high, which is the main reason why polyester factory adopts the price reduction promotion recently. The inventory inflection point for polyester products is likely to occur in the next two weeks.
The change of polyester load directly affects the demand of polyester raw materials: the average load in February is 61-62%, and the polyester output is around 3 million tons. As the polyester plant has been restarted, the estimated monthly output in March and April is 3.843 million tons and 4.43 million tons, respectively. March is expected to be much longer than the late February, and march and April are the peak season in previous years. It is expected that the polyester load will return to the normal level at the end of march. However, due to missing the peak season of a month, April may be a large-scale destocking process, but the overall inventory level is still unable to be digested to the normal level.
The expected future
Late, overseas outbreak continued fermentation, the crude oil continues to decline, and the PTA, ethylene glycol by polyester and terminal weaving load increase relatively slowly, or next week weak turbulence is given priority to, supply and fg inventory control, polyester filament plant will slow down the loading speed, but there was no substantial improvement in domestic demand at this time, the weaving factory new single trading co., LTD, and foreign trade, the spread of late makes the foreign trade demand has certain uncertainty, no obvious positive demand side. Therefore, it is expected that the late polyester filament factory will still adopt preferential shipping, reduce inventory policy.